23. February 2012 by admin.

first major windfarm in poland!

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22. February 2012 by admin.

I still strongly believe that netflix will get netflixed. The barrier to entry which existed when netflix built their business on new technology is just not there. The VOD business is slowly becoming a commidity business- no longer based on technology the way it was a few years ago when netflix “flixed” blockbuster- its an even playing field and it is all about content right now.

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26. September 2011 by admin.

It is not surprising that Groupon was required to do a restate on it’s revenues. What is surprising is that the restate took so long to happen… I don’t know who decided not to take the 6 billion from Google but, I do wonder if the decision was made without a full understanding of the very real revenue recognition concerns. I doubt it.

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16. September 2011 by admin.

In January  2011, ( in my predictions for 2001 ) while Netflix was seemingly at the top of it’s game, I predicted that Netflix would become increasingly irrelevant.  Some people scoffed at that notion ( some people actually agreed with me) ,,,I also predicted that Groupon would not succeed as well

I figured it would be a good time to revisit Netflix.

It’s quite simple :  Netflix simply does not have content to compete with the other players. It used to be that Netflix had an edge because of it’s unique streaming and content management technology. This is no longer the case.  Netflix no longer had any significant technology edge and they still dont have content…. What is likely to happen IMO is that Netflix will either merge or be brought out ( or buy) a major content provider.

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7. September 2011 by admin.

interesting to note that the original S1 does not at all give details on “same merchant sales” ie- repeat merchants. At that time I had wondered what that metric was and why the company would not release a key metric. We now have the answer: The amended S1 states as follows “In light of our significant merchant pool and our objective to promote variety in our daily deals, our general practice to date has not been to pursue repeat merchants.” 

So now we know- the number is not relevant ( or they dont want to release it)  according to Groupon because- well, they dont think its something that would be a good general business practice and they dont even bother pursuing repeat customers- its a one and out…-   Do they think there is an unlimited supply of quality merchant ? Can they sustain the business with that approach…

On a side note- without seeing the SEC comments i can’t be sure but, I suspect that there was some sort of comment relating to repeat business- given the additional usage of the word “repeat” vs no usage in the first filing- just my educated guess.

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23. August 2011 by admin.

2.2 magnitude-

Epicenter near albany

See Link Below

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/last_event/states/states_new_york.php

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8. August 2011 by admin.

This “downgrade” just is another reason that ratings agencies are really not that useful- every investor should do their own due diligence and the US credit worthiness is not something that actually should require or have any relevance to a rating-

After all - what exactly did a rating committee at S&P tell worldwide  investors that they did not know already.?

Or is S&P just a reality wake up call that our debt is really something we need to think about.

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7. August 2011 by admin.

I don’t know the affect of the S&P downgrade( although I suspect that the standard riskless treasury bills are bigger then the ratings themselves) Regardless it is important to note one key item  from the  S&P report. While its true that S&P takes no position on the mix of revenues ( ie Taxes)and spending ( ie Cuts)

However , importantly to the debate, the report does state the following :

“In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements,
the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability.”

Below is a link to the full report.

S&P Report

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2. August 2011 by admin.

I wasn’t really going to write about this but I though that I could sum this up very quickly with a quick question

Q: What is the risk/reward profile of a company that makes its money selling space in strangers living room…?

A:  probably as risky as letting someone you dont know sleep in your house for some extra income

I dont know where all the logic of risk/reward went but, I guess with all that money floating around the VC world- the money has to sleep somewhere.. 

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3. June 2011 by admin.

A closer look at Groupon numbers reveals the following information and begs the following question- is this sustainable? I will let our readers decide

Assuming a 50% discount being offered by Groupon on products sold ( ie they sell  a 40 dollar gift card for 20)

1) The actual normalized revenues from merchants ( ie- without the groupon) would be approx 3.4 times  (q1 of 2011  )the amount they actually earned from Groupon

2) Merchants are offering affectivly a 70% discount on products which they sell

3) Nomralized ( non groupon revenues) would have have been about $1.2 billion in the first quarter of 2011- to put in cleared numbers- Merchants left over $900 million dollars on the table by using Groupon -

The question is can these numbers continue to last- or to put it in plain english- will merchants continue to look at Groupon as something which is worth it for them to lose significant sums of money on.

SO  a key question for Groupon is simply this- what is their current “same store sales” for merchant: Something which is not to be found in the SEC Filing- How many merchants are repeat merchants, the rate of repetition for their merchant base and any other detailed metrics regarding merchants- Because the key to Groupon is not how many customers will buy- people will always buy items at a significant discount- The key is- how many merchants will sell and if they do sell Groupons will they ask for better terms ? ( more on that later) with over hundreds ( not dozens as I metnioend earlier) companies doing the same thing it is something that really needs watching and this “same Merchant sales” is a key metric for potential success for Groupon

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